DJ's lead at Shinnecock, impressive but far from a sure thing

US Open leaderboard http://www.usopen.com/scoring.html

One of the many pundits covering this 118th US Open at windy Shinnecock Hills used a triple Crown analogy with Belmont race track close by, to describe this weekend ahead " I hate to spoil it for the viewers, this is a 2 horse race with Justify in the inside position, only Justin Rose has any chance of catching Dustin Johnson"

If you have missed it Dustin Johnson (DJ) is the only player under par going into play today at -4, clear of the field by those 4 shots, and as has been the case so often with this supremely talented big guy, he simply looks completely in command.

But to anoint him this years champion is foolhardy for several reasons.

First Shinnecock has been the best player here this week and today there will be a significant breeze (10mph) to test the early tee times which is forecast to freshen by the time DJ and Scott Piercy go off at 3.10pm.

Secondly, DJ has been relying on his short game more than his prodigious driving so far as he is 1st in strokes gained putting and around the green, but 81st in strokes gained approach. He has only hit 21 of 36 greens in regulation. He has scrambled well, but is just a few less putts, or up and downs away from joining  the chasing pack.

As for that pack, look at it's quality and tell me anyone of them is not more than capable of winning on their own merit. At +1, Justin Rose, Brooke Koepka (66), Henrik Stenson are all major champions along with Tommy Fleetwood the Race to Dubai champion who also shot 66 yesterday, and there are others...

Finally there's DJ himself. Earlier this year I watched him just like this week, completely in charge of the WGC- HSBC in China, 7 shots clear before he walked on the tee on Sunday. A round of 77 blew that lead and he finished 3rd behind Rose and Stenson. His 18 career wins are a testament to his unquestioned ability, but so is his preponderance for coughing up wins that seem a sure thing for as many as 54 holes.

I saw a stat that he has only won 6 times on 13 occasions when he led going into Sunday. By the way Rose and Stenson, Ryder Cup stalwarts are paired together in the third last group at 2.48pm. Fleetwood and Hoffman are 2nd last at 2.59pm.

I wouldn't bet the mortgage on DJ, as a matter of fact I'd need pretty good odds...

Bryan Angus