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Wednesday, July 12, 2023

Crunching the numbers reveals Tommy Fleetwood as favourite at Genesis Scottish Open

The first way we sought to measure success at Renaissance was by looking at the strokes gained leaders (that have a minimum of eight rounds completed) over the last four years. The results showed why Xander Schauffele is defending champion this week, standing above the rest with an average of 2.67 strokes gained over the field in the two editions in which he has played.

Tommy Fleetwood

<p>Tommy Fleetwood carded a brilliant 63 at Los Angeles Country Club </p>

Tommy Fleetwood, with an average of 2.17 strokes gained over the field average, is the only other player who has gained more than two strokes over his competitors, accumulated over 12 rounds in three events. He's been statistically the best golfer at Renaissance over the last three editions, missing out in a play-off in 2020, finishing in a tie for 26th in 2021, and a tie for fourth in 2022.

Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick and Thomas Detry have all been part of play-offs at the East Lothian venue, beaten out to the title at the sudden-death stage.

In addition to strokes gained, it wouldn't be right to ignore pure championship results over that same time period, too.

Unsurprisingly, counting only players in the field this week, Schauffele (1st, 10th), Fleetwood, Detry, Fitzpatrick, and Herbert all have two top-tens apiece. Hatton is the only outlier - with a tie for 14th, 18th and 24th, while the addition to that list is two-time Major Champion Justin Thomas, who had top tens in 2019 and 2021. Jamie Donaldson also has a solid record in this contest, with top tens in 2019 and 2022 - the latter of which helped him earn a spot at The Open in 2021

After Detry, there are just four other players in the last four editions who have ranked inside the top 20 more than once for Strokes Gained tee to green (that have played all four rounds).

 Schauffele was ranked first last year, and 11th in 2021. 

Fleetwood ranked first during his play-off loss to Rai in 2020 and 14th when he tied for fourth in 2022, while Hatton ranked fourth in 2019 when he finished in a tie for 14th in the tournament and 20th in 2022 when he was tied 24th.

Elsewhere, Andy Sullivan, who ranked 18th in both 2019 and 2020, finished inside the top 30 both times.

With all that considered, there is just one player who has multiple top tens, has gained over two strokes over the field in all contests, has ranked inside the top 20 in strokes gained tee to green statistics at Renaissance more than once, has positive strokes gained in every tournament played and is currently ranked inside the top ten for that statistic on Tour: Tommy Fleetwood.

Fleetwood missed the cut in his last start out on the PGA TOUR, but in his two events prior finished second at the RBC Canadian Open, and in a tie for fifth at the U.S. Open. With two weeks off, the Englishman will be hoping to return to Scotland refreshed for an event in which he has a history of performing well.

Defending champion Schauffele also fits the bill other than being one place outside the top ten on Tour, currently ranked 11th. Arriving in great form, Schauffele hasn't finished outside the top 25 in his last nine events, which includes a tie for tenth at the U.S Open among five top tens.

europeantour.com

Bryan Angus (edit)

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