Edward Molinari DP World Tour Stats guru previews Abu Dhabi

 By Edoardo Molinari

In his regular Rolex Series column for the DP World Tour, Edoardo Molinari identifies the key holes and the players to watch out for at the Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship.

This article is a My Tour exclusive. A three-time DP World Tour winner, the Italian has become one of golf's leading data analysts for a host of established players and will aim to help Europe to a third consecutive Ryder Cup triumph next year in his role as a Vice Captain to skipper Luke Donald.

Analysing the numbers, Molinari previews the fourth Rolex Series event of the season at Yas Links as the DP World Tour Play-Offs get under way.

Looking Back: Aaron Rai's victory in 2025

Rai's victory 12 months ago was his second in a Rolex Series event and since then he has gone on to become a Major winner at the US PGA Championship.

Tommy Fleetwood shared the lead after round one but Rai caught him after 36 holes and led by one from his fellow Englishman on Saturday night.

Come Sunday evening the duo could not be separated at -25 and after playing the 18th in almost identical fashion on their first trip back in the play-off, it was Rai who made his birdie putt to take the title.

* Rai's weapon was his iron play: gaining him a field-leading 1.97 shots per round in appproach and 2.9 shots per round tee to green, the second best in the field.

* His putting by contrast could hardly have been more pedestrian as he gained 0.01 shots to be 34th in a 72-man field.

* Fleetwood on the other hand worked wonders with the short stick, finishing fifth in putting at 1.4 shots per round gained but picked up just 1.6 shots tee to green.

* He made just one bogey all week with that profile so there is clearly more than one way to succeed at Yas Links.

Holes to watch out for

Hole 15 - 486 yards, par four the hardest

• The hardest hole on the course since the tournament moved to November: it averaged 4.07 in 2024 and 2025, with 15% birdies against 19% bogeys or worse. It is the longest par four on the course and the hardest green to hit: only 70% of the field hits it in regulation.

• Three quarters of the field find the fairway, but missing it costs 0.55 shots: 3.93 from the fairway against 4.48 from anywhere else.

Hole 17 - 204 yards, hardest par three

• The hardest par three and the second hardest hole in November: 3.05 on average, 15% birdies against 18% bogeys or worse. Only 74% of the field hits the green.

Hole 2 - 534 yards, par five the easiest

• The easiest hole on the course: 73% birdies or better in November, including 11% eagles, with 86% of the field going for the green in two.

• It is still the most expensive fairway to miss on the course: 4.04 from the fairway against 4.63 from anywhere else, a 0.59-shot penalty. From the rough only 39% of the players go for the green.

Hole 18 - 646 yards, par five, the iconic finish

• The one par five that is not a birdie hole: 4.86 in November, with 34% birdies or better against 17% bogeys or worse. Only 45% of the field go for the green in two, and the second shot here has the largest spread of outcomes of any shot on the course. That matches the hole itself which has the biggest spread of scores on the course

• Going for it pays: from the fairway at 260-290 yards, players who went for the green averaged 4.51 against 5.00 for those who laid up, and from 290-330 yards it was still 4.58 against 5.03. The tee shot decides it: the 11% who find a fairway bunker average 5.34, against 4.74 from the fairway.

Players to watch

Since changing from January to November this is a birdie race (-24 and -25 won the last two editions) on a course that rewards length off the tee and great iron play: three of the four par fives are reachable for most of the field, and the last two winners were the best approach players of the week.

Stars

• Rory McIlroy has the best course record in the field at 2.2 shots gained per round over 12 rounds and has finished third in both November editions. He is also the best player off the tee in the field over the last 12 months at +1.05, the skill that separates most here in November, and is the second highest rated player in the world in our model.

• Tommy Fleetwood lost a play-off here last year and was sixth the year before, matching McIlroy at +2.4 shots per round in November. He is the third highest rated player in the world in our model and has the best form in the field over the last six months.

• Aaron Rai won this with his irons 12 months ago and is the third best approach player in the field over the last 12 months at +0.7 shots per round.

Outsiders

• Tyrrell Hatton has three top seven finishes in four starts at Yas Links and is +1.6 shots per round over 16 rounds. That is the third best course record in the field even after a 41st place last year.

• Victor Perez won here in 2023 at -18 and was +3.3 shots per round that week. He has the second best course record in the field at +1.6 shots per round over eight rounds) which is built on his short game (+0.65) and putting (+0.8).

• Daniel Hillier was tied fifth here last year at -22 with 1.9 shots gained per round putting and has been the fifth best player off the tee in the field over the last 12 months, which suits Yas in November.

Bryan Angus (edit)