Picking a winner for any tournament is a popular pastime for those of us who cover the game, however it is usually a futile one, especially with the parity that exists now that Tiger's reign is over, and especially because the talent pool is world wide.
However rather than closing my eyes and stabbing the page with a pen, or going by their club manufacturer, or grading them by how sharp a dresser they are (where does Rickie rank !!), all of which are probably as accurate as what I am about to do, I will try to apply some common sense
I always look for the following..
*guys in form
*past record at the course
*guys who are getting progressively better
*guys who play well at the big events
*local guys who play the course a lot and can sleep at home
*past winners
*guys whose games should suit the course (eg. bombers vs ball strikers)
*respect for rankings
*guys with bottle when it's all on the line.
Here are 37 of the 144 guys who I think could win, many of them fit into more than 1 of my categories, but like I said this is a fun if not futile excercise..
Guys in Form
Ben Curtis He's red-hot: Followed win at Valero Texas Open with a T13 and a T5
James Dufner Zurich Classic winner finished T6 last year at TPC Sawgrass
Rickie Fowler The monkey's off his back with Wells Fargo win.
Hunter Mahan This season's only two-timer winner finished T6 here last year
Francesco Molinari Like Rickie Fowler, he comes off a win (Spanish Open )
Louis Oosthuizen Two EuroTour wins this year to go with runner-up at Masters
Carl Pettersson Won last month at Hilton Head; has two T2 finishes this season
DA Points Coming off a playoff loss at Quail Hollow; making 3rd PLAYERS start
Webb Simpson Coming off a 4th in Charlotte, recorded his fourth T10
Rory McIlroy MC in his two previous PLAYERS starts, didn't play 2011
Lee Westwood Back for first time since 2010 when he was T4; 4 T5 in 2012
Nick Watney T4 at last year's PLAYERS, 8th in Charlotte
Ernie Els In 18 starts at THE PLAYERS has 4 T10, T6 in 2008
Past Record at TPC Sawgrass
Ben Crane between 2008-10, he finished T6, T5 and T4 at PLAYERS
Sergio Garcia 4 top-15 finishes in last 6 PLAYERS starts, won in 2008
Zach Johnson 8of his last 12 rounds at TPC Sawgrass have been under par
Alvaro Quiros T6 at last year, won twice on European Tour in 2011
Henrik Stenson Loves TPC Sawgrass: Won here in '09, T10 in '08, T3 in '06
Guys who are getting progressively better
Jason Day T6 in 2011,posted 1st T10 of year at Wells Fargo
Graham DeLaet Big-hitting Canuck T4 at Zurich last month
James Driscoll 2 T10's in last four starts,T9 at Wells Fargo
Ken Duke Veteran already has three top-10s
Robert Garrigus 2 T2 in first 10 starts this year
David Hearn made 7/13 cuts; final-round averages 4th on TOUR
Kevin Na in contention a lot with 4 T10s, T3 at 2009 PLAYERS
Ian Poulter 2nd in 2009, 2 T7 finishes in last two TOUR starts
Webb Simpson 4th in Charlotte,4th T10 this year
Heath Slocum strong effort at Quail Hollow; T4 here 2 years ago
Ryan Moore Has come on strong 3 T10 finishes last 4 starts
Guys who play well at Big Events
Peter Hanson Shows up at big eventsT3(Masters)T4(Cadillac)T5(Match Play)
Phil Mickelson 3 rounds in 60s in winning here in 2007
Tiger Woods 8th MC of career last week; WD from last 2PLAYERS
Local Guys
Bud Cauley lives in Jacksonville played course 100 times
Jim Furyk Local resident has 3 T10s Sawgrass last 8 starts
Past winners
KJ Choi never finished better than T16 at PLAYERS until winning last year
Adam Scott Won here in '04, T6 last year
Guys whose game suits TPC Sawgrass
Zach Johnson 8 of last 12 rounds at Sawgrass under par
David Toms 2011 lost playoff to K.J. Choi, T5 in driving accuracy
Respect for Rankings
Luke Donald 9 PLAYERS starts, 2 T10 finishes,T4 last year
Guys with bottle when it's all on the line
I reserved this space where I used to always put Tiger, just in case he finally stops over thinking, has some fun and just starts playing, just like Lee and Arnie have told him to do !!
TOMORROW I WILL GIVE YOU MY TOP 5 FROM THIS LIST
Bryan Angus also on twitter@mummmbles and at www.isr1050.com (Notes and research from pgatour.com) |
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